Methodology

Last updated: 2026-06-02

Signal Model Formulas

Every AI signal on this site shows a transparent confluence score. We publish the formula so you can audit our work.

Confluence Score (0–100)

A weighted average of 5 normalized factors:

1. Funding rate divergence (20%) — multi-exchange spread from neutral
2. Liquidation cluster proximity (20%) — distance to nearest >$50M cluster
3. Exchange net flow (20%) — 24h inflow/outflow per exchange reserves
4. Social sentiment delta (20%) — Galaxy Score 24h change
5. ETF flow direction (20%) — yesterday's net inflow/outflow

Score 0–30: Bearish · 30–70: Neutral · 70–100: Bullish. The score is descriptive, not prescriptive.

Kimchi Premium

premium = (price_krw_korea / fx_usd_krw - price_usd_global) / price_usd_global × 100%

Funding Arbitrage Detection

Alert fires when max(funding_rates) - min(funding_rates) > 0.05% across our 5 monitored exchanges.

Backtest Transparency

Every signal type publishes its 30/90/365-day hit rate at /analysis/backtest-transparency/. We do not claim "92% win rate" — we publish actual numbers.

What We Will NOT Do

• Promise specific price targets ("BTC to $200k by Q4")
• Run paid pump groups
• Sell signals labeled as guaranteed
• Hide losing trades or selectively show winners

Questions about our methodology? Email methodology@cryptoalertai.com